Walmart will report earnings before the bell. Here's what to expect

Walmart’s Q1 2025 Earnings Preview: Can the Retail Giant Keep Winning?
A Retail Powerhouse Under the Spotlight
As the world’s largest retailer gears up to release its fiscal first-quarter 2025 earnings before the market opens on May 15, 2025, all eyes are on Walmart (WMT). Known for its everyday low prices and sprawling network of stores, Walmart has been a beacon of resilience in a turbulent retail landscape. But with economic uncertainties, potential tariff impacts, and shifting consumer behaviors, what can investors and shoppers expect from this retail titan? Noyzy News breaks down the key factors driving Walmart’s performance and what’s at stake in this highly anticipated report.
A Strong Track Record
Walmart has consistently outperformed expectations in recent quarters, cementing its status as a retail juggernaut. In its fiscal fourth quarter of 2025 (ended January 31, 2025), the company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.66, surpassing Wall Street’s forecast of $0.64, and revenue of $180.55 billion, topping estimates of $180.01 billion. Comparable U.S. store sales rose 4.6%, fueled by a 20% surge in e-commerce and gains from higher-income shoppers.
This momentum carried through fiscal 2025, with full-year revenue climbing 5.1% to $681 billion and U.S. e-commerce sales soaring 20%. Walmart’s ability to attract wealthier customers—households earning over $100,000—while maintaining its core value-driven base has been a game-changer. But with a cautious outlook for fiscal 2026, projecting slower sales growth of 3% to 4% and EPS of $2.50 to $2.60, analysts are eager to see if Walmart can sustain its winning streak.
What Analysts Are Saying
Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about Walmart’s Q1 performance. Here’s what analysts are projecting for the quarter ending April 30, 2025, based on consensus estimates:

Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.58, a 3.3% decline from $0.60 in the year-ago quarter.
Revenue: $165.56 billion, up 2.5% from $161.51 billion in Q1 2024.
Comparable U.S. Sales Growth: Expected to hover around 3–4%, in line with Walmart’s full-year guidance.
E-commerce Growth: Analysts anticipate continued strength, with U.S. e-commerce sales potentially growing 15–20%, driven by pickup and delivery services.

Analysts at JPMorgan and Bank of America Securities have called Walmart a “safe-haven stock,” citing its value proposition and digital investments as key strengths in a price-conscious market. However, some warn that a less favorable product mix and rising costs, such as casualty claims, could pressure margins.
Key Factors to Watch
Walmart’s Q1 earnings will offer a window into the health of the U.S. consumer and the retailer’s ability to navigate a complex environment. Here are the critical areas to monitor:
1. Consumer Spending Trends
As inflation cools, shoppers remain selective, prioritizing essentials like groceries over discretionary items like electronics. Walmart’s grocery business, which accounts for about 60% of its U.S. sales, has been a steady driver, benefiting from the gap between the cost of cooking at home versus dining out. Will higher-income shoppers continue to fuel growth, and can Walmart entice budget-conscious consumers with more “rollbacks” (temporary price cuts)?
2. E-commerce and Advertising Growth
Walmart’s digital transformation has been a standout, with U.S. e-commerce sales jumping 20% in Q4 2025 and its advertising platform, Walmart Connect, growing 24%. Faster delivery times and an expanded online marketplace have drawn more customers, with over 30% of U.S. online orders opting for expedited delivery. Investors will look for signs that these high-margin businesses continue to offset slower physical store growth.
3. Tariff Concerns
President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada have sparked concerns about rising prices. Walmart’s CFO, John David Rainey, noted that the company excluded tariff impacts from its fiscal 2026 guidance, but executives have emphasized strategies to mitigate costs, such as diversifying sourcing and leaning on private-label brands. Any commentary on tariff preparedness could move the stock.
4. Margin and Cost Management
Walmart’s gross margin improved by 53 basis points in Q4 2025, thanks to better inventory management and a favorable business mix. However, higher operating expenses, including investments in AI and supply chain automation, could weigh on profitability. Rainey has stressed a “measured” outlook to avoid overcommitting in an uncertain environment.
Challenges and Opportunities
Walmart faces a mixed bag of headwinds and tailwinds. On one hand, its omnichannel strategy—blending physical stores with a robust online presence—has strengthened its competitive edge against rivals like Target, which saw a 1% sales decline in 2024. Walmart’s global membership programs, like Walmart Plus, grew 21% to $3.8 billion, signaling strong customer loyalty.
On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainties and potential tariff-driven price hikes could dampen consumer spending. Retail sales dropped sharply in January 2025 due to cold weather, and some analysts warn of a post-holiday pullback. Walmart’s ability to maintain low prices while absorbing cost pressures will be critical.
Conclusion: A Bellwether for Retail
Walmart’s Q1 2025 earnings report is more than a financial snapshot—it’s a barometer for the U.S. economy and consumer sentiment. With its unmatched scale, digital prowess, and focus on value, Walmart is well-positioned to weather challenges, but investors will scrutinize its guidance for clues about the road ahead. Can the retail giant keep defying expectations, or will cautious forecasts temper its hot streak? Tune in to Noyzy News for updates as Walmart’s results roll out on May 15, 2025.